Keep Special Elections in Perspective
May 16, 2011The first special election of the 2011-12 cycle takes place tomorrow to fill the Lyndeborough, Mont Vernon, New Boston, Temple, Wilton seat vacated by Bob Mead. Peter Kucmas of New Boston is the Republican. Jennifer Daler of Temple is the Democrat.
The importance of special elections is almost always way overblown. It’s a referendum on (Gov. Lynch, the new Republican legislative majority, Speaker O’Brien…take your pick)!
Nonsense. The reality is that 90% of special elections are over on filing day. In most districts one party or the other has a big advantage in terms of voter registration. Usually one candidate is much better known, or much better qualified, than the other. Often one candidate comes from the vote-rich town in a multi-town district and the other does not. Most special elections are mis-matches.
Rarely is a special election contested between two well-matched candidates in a truly competitive district. Rarely does a seat change hands between parties. And rarely does it make a real difference in terms of policy outcomes which candidate wins or loses. The Republicans had a 298-102 advantage in the house after last November’s election. Even if they lose all four specials currently scheduled, they should be able to get by at 294-106.
Of course, prestige and bragging rights are on the line. The Democratic candidate has raised nearly $4,000 as for a couple weeks ago – an impressive figure for a state rep race. The state Republican Party is spending precious resources to match. That’s what parties are supposed to do – help its candidates win elections.
The party of which ever candidate wins will take a deserved bow. If the Dems win, expect breathless press releases and tweets about the cosmic meaning of it all. But let’s not read anything dramatic into the outcome, win or lose. And it’s certainly not a referendum.
pinko
May 16, 2011
Sounds like Fergus is preparing for a loss.
TimothyHorrigan
May 17, 2011
Fergus’s fears were realized: Jennifer Daler beats O’Brien’s candidate 59% to 41%. That’s not just a defeat: that’s a slapdown & a refudiation.
Arthur
May 18, 2011
I live outside the district. As a Republican, I wish I’d had the opportunity to vote NO CONFIDENCE in O’Brien in this election.
The Granite State Poll shows you what Republicans want. 60% of GOP support union rights, public and private sector. 60% want the budget fixed with AT LEAST SOME tax increases. Only 39% of GOPers support only spending cuts.
This legislature isn’t cutting one dime from the size of food stamp payments or welfare checks. Instead they’re cutting programs for the mentally ill and disabled. Then they cut even more and use that money to fund tax cuts for out-of-staters (rooms tax).
One way or the other, O’Brien will be out as Speaker. Either by the House GOP replacing him or voters replacing the GOP in 2012.